24-month SaaS operating model · 3 sheets · ~430 formulas · delivered in 2 days. Deliverables: this report and the corrected workbook (changed cells in blue). Original file.
The model made the company look less loss-making but with weaker unit economics than it really has. In an investor conversation that is the worst combination: the P&L will not survive diligence, and the strongest argument was hidden.
| Metric | As submitted | Corrected | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net income, 2 years | −$567.6k | −$741.5k | losses understated by $174k |
| Year-2 net income | −$190.6k | −$270.8k | December was missing from the total |
| LTV / CAC | 2.3× | 4.9× | unit economics are better than the deck claims |
| Customers, month 24 | 1,053 | 1,049 | growth math was off by one month |
| Cash runs out | month 6 | month 6 | runway unchanged — the raise is needed now |
| # | Severity | Where | Issue | Fix |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | High | Model!16 | Tax charged on losses: every loss month “earns” a 20% refund | MAX(0, EBITDA) × rate |
| 2 | High | Model!18 | Cash adds EBITDA instead of net income — tax never leaves the bank | add net income |
| 3 | High | Summary!C4 | Year-2 net income sums Jan–Nov (N:X), December dropped | N:Y |
| 4 | High | Summary!B7 | LTV = ARPA × 12 ignores churn and gross margin | ARPA × GM% ÷ churn ÷ CAC |
| 5 | Medium | Model!4 | Churn applied to customers acquired the same month | churn on previous month’s base |
| 6 | Medium | Model!3 | New-customer growth starts at exponent 1, month 1 already grown | exponent (month − 1) |
| 7 | Medium | Model!6 | Price increase starts in month 12, not 13 | month ≥ 13 |
| 8 | Medium | Model!8 | Payment fee hard-coded at 2%; assumption says 2.9% | link to Assumptions!B8 |
| 9 | Medium | Model!12 | Year-2 marketing = all customers × CAC ÷ 12, not new customers × CAC | same formula as year 1 |
| 10 | Low | Model!14 | B12*12/12+B12*0 — right number today, breaks on any edit | plain link |
Add tax loss carry-forward for the company’s jurisdiction; add a base / downside / upside switch and a runway chart for the deck.