Most store owners watch revenue and ROAS. This model shows contribution per order after product cost, fulfilment, payment fees, returns and ad spend — and how much cash is sitting in your stock.
Ad budget ÷ cost per order, organic growth, and repeat purchases from everyone who bought before.
The number that decides whether scaling ads makes or burns money — tracked every month.
Returns cut revenue and shipping is still paid, but restocked items give product cost back.
Stock is bought ahead; the model shows the cash it locks up and how that grows with sales.
Base, downside and upside in a drop-down: CPA, AOV, returns, repeat rate and growth follow.
Orders, revenue, ad spend, blended ROAS, EBITDA, tax with loss carry-forward, cash.
A blended ROAS of 2.45× sounds acceptable. In the downside case it means losing $4.39 on every order in month one — scaling ads only scales the loss. The model makes that visible before you spend the budget.
| Scenario | Blended ROAS, yr 1 | Contribution per order, month 24 | Net income, year 2 | Cash, month 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downside | 2.45× | −$0.04 | −$273.7k | negative |
| Base | 3.50× | $10.60 | $90.2k | $80.8k |
| Upside | 5.35× | $22.02 | $954.3k | positive |
Illustrative inputs shipped with the template; replace them with yours.
We connect it to your real order export and ad spend, or audit the model you already have. From $150.
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